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Why has crime increased in the West and is it really just a ‘youth’ issue?

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By Blessing Omosebi

For the last ten years, I have called Tarneit my home and all 56,370 residents my neighbours. I couldn’t be prouder of what this place has done for me, my family and my friends. So what is this talk about ‘increase in crime’ and ‘gangs’. To answer this I want to explore three questions. What is the truth behind this crime crisis, what is the cause, and what can we do about this?

To answer the first question, there has been quite an increase in crime in Tarneit, actually a notable one. Crime in our beloved suburb has increased by 34.68% from 2023 to 2024. Recorded crime in 2023 was 3,301 criminal acts which was up from 2,477 from 2022. These numbers paint a world that does not resemble the home I have known for nearly a decade. More and more, we hear stories of break-ins, burglaries and other heinous crimes, particularly committed by young people. 

The top crimes in our suburb now are theft, burglary, assault and property damage. These criminals could be our friends, our brothers, our schoolmates. What does this mean for our home? Well first, don’t panic, too much. While Tarneit is having a rapid increase in crime, it is important to note our crime rates are still below Melton, Footscray and many inner city suburbs. 

Additionally, we have seen a marginal decrease in youth crime with 2024 seeing Wyndham recording 957 youth offenders aged 10 – 17, which comes down slightly from 964 in 2023. While this number may or may not concern you, youth crime should. The increase in crime is not caused by first-time youth offenders, it is those who reoffend that are on the rise. Across Victoria, including our beloved West, there has been a decrease of the total number of child offenders, which has dropped by 3%. However the amount of youth reoffending has risen by 4.9% in 2024. 

So while we are below the rates seen in some other suburbs we still need to face a sobering truth; we are still in the midst of a youth reoffending crime spree. This is our current reality. 

So, what is the root cause of this increase in crime? Did we sleepwalk into this catastrophe? Could we have done more? What is pushing our youth into a life of crime and all the consequences that come with that?

To analyse this we will take three key issues that Tarneit faces; rapid population growth, socio economic instability, and an insufficient number of police officers.

Population growth

Let’s begin with rapid population growth. Wyndham is projected to exceed 500,000 residents by 2031, with Tarneit responsible for many of these people. So Tarneit is growing, and growing fast. Between 2024 to 2025, the population of Tarneit grew by 60,000 people and could reach over 80,000 by 2031. 

So how does this growth lead to a sharp increase in crime? Well simply we are terrifyingly underprepared for this growth. Tarneit is behind in infrastructure. This means our roads, schools and healthcare services are all struggling to keep up with the rapid growth we are experiencing. With limited community centres, libraries and after school programs, it is not surprising to see a lack of positive engagement and youth disengagement, leading young people to fall into a life of crime. What fills the void of positive socialisation has been gang violence and negative peer pressure. While it is easy to see youth crime in a black and white manner, nuance forces us to face the underlying issues behind this increase in youth crime and to look at ourselves as a community and realise our hands are not clean of this crisis. 

Socio economics

Secondly, socio economic instability. It is a fact that Tarneit lags behind other areas in Victoria in terms of our economic prosperity. To focus our attention, however, we will be looking at youth unemployment. Again, to assuage panic, we should be aware that youth unemployment is only slightly higher than the state average. Despite this, our youth unemployment is still unbearably high. 

Unemployment, regardless of age, can push people to crime in order to survive, or simply fill time, and provide escapism from one’s reality. No access to jobs, especially for long periods of time, can very quickly lead to things like theft or shoplifting, because people have no other option to survive. 

Additionally, the disillusionment young people face, when they don’t have much going for them, and no end in sight to their current economic situation, is a beautiful breeding ground for organised crime groups or gangs to recruit young people. The impact of unemployment can cause mental health issues, which can lead to joblessness; a vicious cycle. In turn, mental health issues can lead to substance use, aggression and lack of impulse control. With these issues in place, the path to criminality is compelling.

Police officers numbers

Lastly, the ongoing general issue of lack of police officers is a disappointing clear link to increase in youth crime. To be clear, lack of police officers is not a Tarneit issue, it is a Melbourne issue and also a highly contested political issue. In short, police officers are under-funded and burnt out. This is confirmed by the Police Association Victoria (PAV). Many western suburbs are disturbingly under-policed. This fact along with the growing population in the West has and continues to be a recipe for disaster. The Police Association and community leaders continue to advocate for a greater distribution of police officers, specifically to add more officers in high growth areas. Under-policing leads to longer wait times for emergencies and allows for youth crime to thrive and be a continued pressing issue for the suburb. 

Okay, so we’re past all the scary stuff. We have now arrived at hope. Our hope lies in the question, what can be done about this crime increase? 

Well, luckily there are only three things you need to do. 

One, look at the truth behind the crime and your role in it. Consider why crime is rising. Do you need to better educate yourself on what you can do in this crisis? Do you really know what bail reform is? Crime does not exist in a bubble. It is not a thing we must resign ourselves to. It is a systemic issue which can be made better through systematic steps to rectify the issue. 

Two and three are your biggest assets; your voice and your vote. All the issues above have solutions and those solutions can be made through our representatives. We do not deserve to live in fear, so write to your local MP and councilors. Your voice is not beyond your reach, it does not need to be silent. If you take one thing away from this article, it is simply that Tarneit and many western suburbs are not beyond saving and you play a key role in their salvation. 

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