Climate Change: Super El Nino, extreme heat and drought conditions to impact the West over the summer

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With an intense summer predicted, firefighters say even those of us in urban areas need to prepare a fire plan

Reported by Lev Burke

In the wake of a UN report stating that the planet is about to overshoot a 1.5 degree global temperature increase by 2030, and a ‘super El Niño’ forecast for summer, Australia is preparing for an intense bushfire season

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology monitoring shows the coming El-Niño has already broken records for heat waves in Europe and beyond and will likely continue to grow warmer.

Geoff McGill is the Assistant Chief Fire Officer for CFA District 14, which oversees fires in the immediate west and north of Melbourne. Speaking to The Westsider he says “the current weather predictions when you look at the el-niño and the Southern Indian Dipole all point towards a bad fire season for us here in Victoria.”

McGill is especially concerned with the grasslands and pasture areas west of Melbourne and beyond as they are currently still in drought. He says there is a growing threat to urban areas as drought affected grasslands often overlap with urban areas in the West. 

“That will impact the pasture areas and as our urban sprawl starts creeping out into some of those areas we get that interface or rural/urban interface type fires,” says McGill.

With an additional $17million in government funding McGill isn’t as concerned about resources as he is about educating those who could be affected by fires. McGill wants to ensure that even in urban areas, everyone has a plan. 

When making fire plans he encourages everyone to include nearby members of the community, especially those with disabilities, or who speak English as a second language, and the elderly. 

“We really need to try and reach out to those around us, within the community aspect to say here’s how we’re gonna be prepared for this summer, here’s the actions we’re gonna take when these things actually take place,” he says.

Jo Dodds, Co-Chair and Co-Founder of Bushfire Survivors for Climate Action, agrees that preparedness in the wider community is a major concern. 

“It’s important that we look after each other, because when these big events occur the emergency services cannot get to everyone,” says Dodds, who has experienced the Tathra and District Fire of March 2018 and the 2019-2020 fires of “Black Summer”.

Regarding climate change, Dodds is in no doubt that it’s had an effect, not just by virtue of having hotter summers, but also due to the changes in rainfall.

“The increased temperature can result in either increased drought periods or increased rainfall but the overall picture appears to be one where the average rainfall increases but it comes in these short, violent bursts which turn into floods,” she says.  

In fact she challenges the findings of the UN report, saying it underestimates the speed of global warming. 

“I would argue that we are past 1.5 now. I’ve seen plenty of data to suggest that figure is already in the past”.

Australia recorded its second hottest September ever this year, and its hottest October ever was last year in 2025 according to the Bureau of Meteorology, with early signs suggesting that this pattern of record breaking heat will continue over the summer. 

To make your fire plan head to these sites and don’t forget to factor in your pets! 

  • cfa.vic.gov.au/about-us/cfa-events/get-fire-ready
  • rspcavic.org/emergencyplanning 
  • cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/before-and-during-a-fire/pets-and-bushfires

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